120 ENVISION FRANKLIN | Appendix determine building gross square footage, divided by square footage per employee. 6. All projections were aggregated by TAZ by employment category. If any part of a TAZ was included in the City of Franklin urban growth boundary, all of the census blocks in the TAZ were included even if the block was outside the UGB. However, only blocks within the UGB were projected to 2040, no change in build out is assumed for blocks outside of the UGB (i.e. Existing population and employment numbers were used as future numbers for census blocks inside the TAZ but outside the UGB). 7. The results of the Nashville Area MPO: Regional Land Use Model, Business-as-usual Scenario census block data was aggregated by TAZ. 8. 2013 Base Data: • Population: 2010 MPO/Census data was projected to 2013 using the 2010-2013 growth rate as reported in the 2013 Development Report. • Employment: 2010 MPO/Census data was projected to 2013 using the 2010-2013 MPO Business-as-usual model growth rate. (Employment growth trends were not available as part of annual development reports). 9. The population and employment projections estimated from development agreements and current zoning as aggregated in Step 6 were added to 2013 base year levels to calculate 2040 projections. 10. A straight line projection was applied from 2013 to 2040 to calculate interval years (2015, 2020, 2030, and 2040). By 2040, it is projected that 133,647 will live in the City of Franklin / Franklin UGB area. This is a 52% increase in population from the 2015 estimate of 87,921. Projected employment within the study area for 2040 is 126,667, a 49% increase from the 2015 estimate of 84,995 jobs. Figure 1.9 summarizes the population and employment projections from 2013 to 2040, including the interval years. In addition to the existing population concentrations, residential development is anticipated to the northwest, between Hillsboro Road and State Route 96, south around the Goose Creek interchange in the Berry Farms developments, and east of Interstate 65 in the Seward Hall character area. Figure A.3 shows the 2040 projected population density. Employment growth is primarily expected to occur in established commercial areas, specifically the Cool Springs area, along Carothers Parkway. A new employment concentration will be developed around the Goose Creek interchange in the Berry Farms projects. Additionally, Central Franklin and the Columbia Avenue corridor will continue as employment centers. The 2040 projected employment density is shown in Figure A.4. EXISTING CONDITIONS AND TRENDS APPENDIX A
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